Climate Change Impacts on the Future Distribution of Date Palms: A Modeling Exercise Using CLIMEX
نویسندگان
چکیده
Climate is changing and, as a consequence, some areas that are climatically suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) cultivation at the present time will become unsuitable in the future. In contrast, some areas that are unsuitable under the current climate will become suitable in the future. Consequently, countries that are dependent on date fruit export will experience economic decline, while other countries' economies could improve. Knowledge of the likely potential distribution of this economically important crop under current and future climate scenarios will be useful in planning better strategies to manage such issues. This study used CLIMEX to estimate potential date palm distribution under current and future climate models by using one emission scenario (A2) with two different global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR). The results indicate that in North Africa, many areas with a suitable climate for this species are projected to become climatically unsuitable by 2100. In North and South America, locations such as south-eastern Bolivia and northern Venezuela will become climatically more suitable. By 2070, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and western Iran are projected to have a reduction in climate suitability. The results indicate that cold and dry stresses will play an important role in date palm distribution in the future. These results can inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying new areas in which to cultivate this economically important crop in the future and those areas that will need greater attention due to becoming marginal regions for continued date palm cultivation.
منابع مشابه
Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia
The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented...
متن کاملModeling the current and future suitable habitat distribution of Fritillaria imperialis under climate change scenarios and using three general circulation model in Iran
Climate change may pose challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F.imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). For this purpose, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physi...
متن کاملClimate change and invasive weeds – Modelling distribution of Lantana camara L
This research examines the impacts of climate change on the potential future distribution of Lantana camara L., a highly invasive species, in continental Australia. A process-based niche model of lantana is developed, using CLIMEX software, to estimate its potential distribution. The likely impact of climate change is explored using climate data from two Global Climate Models (GCMs), Echam Mark...
متن کاملAssessment of impacts of future climate change on water resources of the Hulu Langat basin using the swat model
متن کامل
Modeling Current and Future Potential Distributions of Caspian Pond Turtle (Mauremys caspica) under Climate Change Scenarios
Although turtles are the most threatened taxonomic group within the reptile class, we have a very limited understanding of how turtles respond to climate change. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate changes on the geographical distribution of Caspian pond turtle (Mauremys caspica). We used an ensemble approach by combining six species distribution models including artificial neural network...
متن کامل